Why Oregon Ducks May Not Need Much Time To Adjust To The Big 10


The move to the Big 10 may be smoother then expected for the Oregon Ducks. At least on paper.

The way to early Top 25’s and power rankings are coming out for college football now that most of the transfer portal is done. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach released his way to early top 25 and ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his power rankings which he calls his SP+ projections.

Schlabach had the Ducks as the second rated team in the Big 10, but the third ranked team in the country. Schlabach has Ohio State at No. 2 in the Top 25 with the Ducks right behind them. Here is what Schlabach had to say about the Ducks.

“The Ducks’ biggest victory during the offseason was undoubtedly coach Dan Lanning’s commitment to stay and not chase Alabama’s vacancy. Lanning guided the Ducks to a 21-5 record during his first two seasons, and now he’ll lead them into their maiden campaign in the Big Ten. He proved his recruiting chops by signing ESPN’s No. 4-ranked class and landing a handful of top transfers. Former Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel should be a plug-and-play replacement for quarterback Bo Nix. Safety Kobe Savage (Kansas State) and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) were nice pickups from the portal, especially with three starters leaving the secondary. Oregon plays at Michigan on Nov. 2 and gets Ohio State and Washington in two mega contests at home.”

Check out Schlabach’s full Top 25 by clicking here.

Bill Connelly had the Ducks very high on his SP+ projections. In fact. Connelly had the Ducks in the exact same third spot in the country. This is how Connelly comes up with his SP+ projections.

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in reverse chronological order (the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning last season, I also began incorporating transfers — both the quality and the volume — into the recruiting rankings part as well.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?

Connelly has Oregon as the No. 1 offensive SP+, the No. 15 defensive SP+, and the No. 85 special teams SP+.

Connelly has Oregon State falling in the No. 44 spot in the nation. The Beavers have the No. 34 offensive SP+, the No. 67 defensive SP+, and the No. 10 special teams SP+.

If you want to see Bill Connelly’s full SP+ projections power rankings click here.

It is unknown how the Ducks and the other Pac-12 teams adjust to Big 10 football. But in February, there are a lot of college football writers that think the Ducks can make the adjustment just fine.