ESPN’S Bill Connelly Has Some Interesting Comps For Bo Nix At The NFL Level


Bo Nix’s draft stock has fluctuated a ton in his college career. With the NFL draft less than a month away we will finally find out what Nix’s true draft stock is.

According to Draftkings the Denver Broncos are the most likely team to draft Bo Nix. Those odds are at -150, followed by the Vikings at +400, the Raiders at +500, and the Giants at +700.

The question will be where will Nix land? Will it be a first round pick or will Nix fall to the second round? The interesting thing is the Broncos have the No. 12 pick in the draft and then no second round pick. So if the Broncos are to draft Nix they may have to draft Nix in the top half of the first round.

That doesn’t seem like a big idea until you read the comps made by Bill Connelly of ESPN about Bo Nix.

These are the best prospect comps that Connelly could come up with for Bo Nix:

Best prospect comps: Bailey Zappe and Trevor Lawrence.

Writes Connelly:

Heh, I would say that describes Nix’s range pretty appropriately. Both threw at least 29% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (Nix was at 31%), both got the ball out of their hands quickly (like Nix at Oregon), both escaped pressure with quick passing, and both were safe from an interceptions perspective. The difference between those two, of course, is upside. Nix’s measurables aren’t Lawrence’s (6-2 vs. 6-6), but they’re better than Zappe’s, so we’ll see if there’s a high ceiling to match the likely high floor.

Trevor Lawrence. Great! Bailey Zappe. Huh? If that is the floor and the ceiling of prospects for Nix then it is hard to see a team at No. 12 drafting Nix. A high floor and a questionable high ceiling for a quarterback at No. 12 is tough. Nix seems like a certain to be able to land on a roster and play in the NFL, but he may never be a star quarterback who can change a franchise. Zappe was a fourth round pick and Lawrence was the unquestioned No. 1 overall draft pick. A wide range of prospect comps.

Connelly also listed his pro comps for Bo Nix. If there was a question about Nix based on the prospect comps, there is going to be a lot of questions after the pro comps.

Best pro comps: Mike White and Tyson Bagent.

Yeah, you need upside to survive in the pros — you can’t just nibble — so in looking for players with Nix’s profile, we don’t find much. White and Bagent were the two players who came up when looking for QBs with (a) under 7.0 air yards per attempt, (b) a 62% completion rate or higher, (c) a 4.0% interception rate or lower and (d) solid escapability numbers in the form of a 20% sacks-to-pressures ratio. Again, it will come down to whether Nix can be safe and steady most of the time but deliver raw upside on occasion.

Mike White was a fifth round pick and Tyson Bagent was an undrafted rookie out of Division II, Shepherd University. These are two backup quarterbacks in the NFL. I do think that Nix is a better pro comp than both of them, but Connelly is the expert. There have been other comps where Nix is compared to Drew Brees because of his ability to be a point guard on the field. It seems as if scouts are torn on Nix’s ability to play day one and his ability to improve as he gets older.

Nix has had two different careers in college. He had his Auburn career where fans wanted him to transfer and he didn’t look like an NFL quarterback. And Nix had his Oregon career where he is going down as one of the fanbases favorite players of all time and was the Heisman favorite heading into the Pac-12 championship game. It seems after five years of college football and months of scouting we still have no idea who Bo Nix is as a football player.