Predictions For All PAC-12 Teams In Week 2
By BOBBY ALBRANT, OREGON SPORTS NEWS
Remember Neil Lomax? No, he wasn’t a Reno Buick dealer. He quarterbacked Portland State back when quarterbacking Portland State was a “thing.”
Forty years ago, he completed seven touchdown passes in one game. He did all seven in just the first quarter. That was against Delaware State. After DSU fumbled 16 times, PSU strutted to a 105-0 win.
Also, in that Mouse Davis run-and-shoot season, the Vikings beat Weber State 75-0 and Cal Poly Pomona 93-7.
Can you see where this is going?
No one should feel sorry for the Vikings after they lost to Oregon 81-7. I know enough about PSU head coach Bruce Barnum to tell you that the Vikings don’t feel sorry for themselves. In fact, they’re already scheming to upset Wyoming this week after Wyoming upset Texas Tech last week, and just to bring things full circle, Texas Tech hosts Oregon this week.
Now I’m dizzy.
The point is that big spreads are going to happen at times. Everyone predicted it last week.
It happens.
Move on.
And move on, the Vikings will as they will likely blow out North American University (who?), which plays the likes of TC Texas College, Louisiana Christian University, and Oklahoma Panhandle State University.
It is unlikely anyone can predict how much PSU will win, but I know that Someone needs to find a rotary phone and call Neil. This one is just up his alley.
Around the PAC-12 Northwest . . .
#6 Oregon 1-0 at Texas Tech 0-1
Oregon wins.
Any questions?
I don’t think anyone gives the Red Raiders much chance after they squandered a 17-point first-quarter lead and lost in an upset to Wyoming in overtime.
Yes, TTU has Tyler Shough, and his opening game was terrific. But would you trade Bo Nix for Tyler Shough? I don’t think I would trade Austin Novosad for Tyler Shough. Although Shough is successful, he’s also been quite fragile and unable to stay out of the medical tent.
That becomes an even more profound problem when you see that Shough is also TTU’s most prolific rusher. Last week, he carried the ball more than the Raiders’ top two running backs — combined. Somebody has to step up and run the ball better than last week’s 2.4 ypc (104th ranking).
Meanwhile, Duck R.B.s lead the nation with over 10 yards per carry. Yeah, I know, that was against an FCS team, but it’s nearly twice as many yards per carry as the Ducks posted against last year’s FCS opponent.
Oregon wildly overplayed expectations in week one; Texas Tech significantly underplayed expectations.
Despite all those factors, oddsmakers have only seen fit to favor Oregon by 6.5.
I much prefer the 20-point margin projected by my Savvy Index prediction system.
#25 Wisconsin 1-0 at Washington State 1-0
Remember when these two met last year, and WSU shocked Wisconsin 17-14 in Madison? But when Wisconsin finished the regular season 6-6, we realized those Badgers weren’t very good.
This year, they are good. Clearly, new coach Luke Fickell has fixed the blocking schemes and has instantly taken the Badger yards-per-carry from the cellar to fourth in the entire nation.
That will be a problem for Washington State because the Cougars don’t appear to have made similar improvements on the ground. Last week, WSU ran the ball 37 times and didn’t break 100 yards. Their 2.4 ypc ranks 112th.
The element I’ve been most interested in with WSU’s new offensive coordinator is whether or not an out-manned offensive line would hold up under the notion that a more extended-range passing scheme will help.
It’s frustrating for those who love the Cougars because, with a decent offensive line, this team would get to nine or ten wins.
The good news is that Wisconsin didn’t post a single sack in 41 attempts to get to Cole Snyder last week. And that was against a weak Buffalo team.
Wisconsin will grind to a 39-21 win, although national betting lines set the spread at about 12.
Tulsa 1-0 at #10 Washington 1-0
Washington’s demolition of Boise State last week was impressive.
This week, the ‘Dawgs host Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes won last week by 35 points, but that was against Arkansas Pine Bluff of the FCS.
The Pine Bluff long-ball pass defense was so bad last week that Tulsa’s freshman quarterback Cardell Williams hit over 90% of his passes while averaging a gaudy 16 yards per attempt.
This week, Cardell will be playing his first game on the road, and he will be facing a U.W. secondary that looks vastly improved.
If Washington has a weakness, it’s stopping opposing running backs. If Tulsa has a weakness, it is not having a running attack strong enough to take advantage of opponents who can’t stop the run.
National betting lines favor U.W. by 30. I believe my Savvy Index has not rated the Huskies as high as they should be rated in the past 22 months since Kalen DeBoer was hired as head coach. That is certain to change, but it is odd to me that point spreads favoring Washington continue to be conservative.
This week is a good example. Savvy says Washington will win 38-17.
UC Davis at #12 Oregon State 1-0
Former Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins is still at UC Davis and putting the Wildcats into the top 25 of the FCS.
UCD comes to Corvallis with one of the most potent rushing attacks in its division and a clever passing scheme that enables tight end Josh Gale to get 20 yards per catch.
What the Wildcats don’t have is D.J. Uiagelelei behind center. DJU put himself into conversations for national honors with his 80% completion and 239 passing yards despite not playing last week’s game at San Jose State.
If D.J. isn’t enough to warrant Savvy predicting a 45-14 for the Beavers, then let’s throw in reigning offensive PAC-12 player of the year Damien Martinez, who rushed for 145 yards and more than eight yards a clip last week against the Spartans.
UC Davis will have a great season, but this week won’t be a part of that.
Predictions for other PAC-12 games . . .
#22 Mississippi State 36, Arizona 14
Oklahoma State 28, Arizona State 21
Auburn 37, Cal 28
Colorado 31, Nebraska 27
UCLA 28, San Diego State 21
#9 USC 44, Stanford 21
#5 Utah 38, Baylor 14
Last week, the Savvy Index was 89% accurate (77-10) in predicting winners compared to the bookies, who were 78%. Savvy is currently two games better in predicting point spreads and twelve games better in predicting total game points.
My system has 83 college football game predictions this week and a full listing of the Savvy Top-25 rankings. You can see all of those here.
