Weather Alert

Bet The Game: Important Betting Notes for Each NFL Divisional Playoff Game

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

By: Zack Schlegel

 

[6] Minnesota Vikings @ [1] San Francisco 49ers | 1:35 p.m. on NBC

Opening Line: 49ers -7, o/u 46

Current Line: 49ers -7, o/u 44.5

Trends:

  • Underdogs against Kyle Shanahan are 11-4-1 ATS during his time in San Francisco
  • Since Mike Zimmer took over as the Vikings head coach in 2014, Minnesota is 44-19-1 (69.8%) ATS when facing non-divisional opponents
  • Vikings are just 5-14 (26.3%) ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record
  • 49ers are just 6-19-1 (24.0%) ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite
  • This game has the lowest Total on the board of all the Divisional Round games
    • The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams
    • The Under has cashed 12 of the last 17 times that the Vikings have played a team from the NFC

Injuries:

  • Vikings
    • Adam Thielen sustained an ankle injury and has been limited at practice this week — this coming after his hamstring injury earlier in the season
    • Stefon Diggs missed back-to-back days of practice this week with the flu
  • 49ers
    • SF is the healthiest they have been in months
    • They return three key starters on defense — Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, and Jaquiski Tartt
    • RG Mike Person also expected to return from a neck injury

 

[6] Tennessee Titans @ [1] Baltimore Ravens | 5:15 p.m. on CBS

Opening Line: Ravens -10, o/u 48.5

Current Line: Ravens -9.5, o/u 47

Trends:

  • Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC — they have also covered each of their last five road games
  • Initial money came in hard on Titans +10, moving the line as low as +8.5 before there was some buy-back
    • Many bettors took advantage of the opportunity to cross four key numbers on a Teaser with the Titans (11, 13, 14 and 17)
  • Baltimore ranks first in points per drive, passing offense DVOA, and rushing offense DVOA in the NFL
  • Titans have the 21st ranked passing defense DVOA
  • Ravens have the second best Redzone offense, while the Titans have the 31st ranked Redzone defense
  • Action on the Total has come in heavy on the Under
    • Some believe that Lamar Jackson won’t be able to have the same success in the cold weather compared to what we have seen so far this season
    • The Under has cashed each of the last six times that the Ravens have been favored in the playoffs
    • Eight of the last twelve games head-to-head between these two teams have gone Under the Total

Injuries:

  • Titans
    • OLB Jayon Brown injured his shoulder during the first series of their game against the Patriots — he had light participation in practice most of the week
  • Ravens
    • RB Mark Ingram hasn’t practiced since suffering a calf strain on Dec. 22nd (his status us day-to-day)
    • Gus Edwards filled in for Ingram in the season finale, and rushed for a career high 130 yards

 

[4] Houston Texans @ [2] Kansas City Chiefs | 12:05 p.m. on CBS

Opening Line: Chiefs -9, o/u 49

Current Line: Chiefs -9.5, o/u 51

Trends:

  • Kansas City is tied for the best record ATS this season at 10-5-1
  • Andy Reid is under a lot of pressure
    • Chiefs lost to the Texans 31-24 at home earlier in the season — a lot had to do with Reid abandoning the run game too early, while the Texans gashed them for nearly 200 yards on the ground
    • Reid has historically struggled in the postseason — 2-5 straight up in the postseason with KC
  • This is the only game with a Total in the 50’s
    • Opened at 49 and has jumped up to 51
    • Even with the action coming in on the Over — the Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs last five playoff games, and the Under has hit in seven of the Texans last ten games
  • The road team has covered in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams
    • Texans are 5-2-1 ATS on the road this season
    • Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten playoff games
  • Kansas City has the 2nd ranked passing offense DVOA, while the Texans have the 26th ranked passing defense DVOA

Injuries:

  • Chiefs
    • TE Travis Kelce has been limited at practice this week with knee soreness, but expected to play
  • Texans
    • WR Will Fuller is still questionable for the game after missing last week against the Bills (Bill O’Brien said his status is still uncertain)
    • DE J.J. Watt played 50 snaps last week against Buffalo, and mentioned that was “more than expected” — he’s still dealing with a torn pectoral injury

 

[5] Seattle Seahawks @ [2] Green Bay Packers | 3:40 p.m. on FOX

Opening Line: Packers -3.5, o/u 46

Current Line: Packers -4, o/u 46.5

Trends:

  • Seattle was the most popular bet on Wild Card weekend — 78% of bettors backed the Seahawks
    • They are the shortest underdog for the Divisional Round and once again the most popular bet
  • Seahawks are 34-16-3 (56.7%) ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog — they are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog
  • Green Bay has won the last eight times that Seattle has come to Lambeau Field
    • Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in the last six trips to GB
  • Packers have been solid against quality opponents this season
    • They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record
    • Only game they didn’t cover was at San Francisco back in November
    • Packers beat the Vikings and the Chiefs on the road this season
  • Action on the Total was initially on the Over, bringing the number from 46 to 47
    • With news of possible snow storms, the number has ticked back down to 46.5
  • Packers rank 4th in rushing offense DVOA, while the Seahawks rank 26th in rushing defense DVOA
  • Seahawks strength of schedule ranks 2nd, while the Packers schedule ranks 17th

Injuries:

  • Seahawks
    • LT Duane Brown has knee surgery only weeks ago and wasn’t supposed to practice much, but Pete Carroll mentioned he was getting some decent work in and his status is encouraging
    • George Fant replaced Brown for two of the last three games — the problem is that this kept Seattle from using Fant as an extra tackle in heavy packages, which has been a staple of their offense
  • Packers
    • NT Kenny Clark is dealing with back issues and was seen on the exercise bike for the early parts of practice — he’s been a key for the Packers run defense and climbed to 3rd on the team in sacks (6.0)

 

Follow 750 The Game on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.



Connect With Us Listen To Us On