Why Oregon Is Ready to Give Michigan a Scary Sight

By SPENCER McLAUGHLIN
Contributor, 750 The Game

Michigan won last season’s national championship over Washington 34-13. A similar score of 31-12 at ‘The Big House’ back in week 2 went the opposite way when Texas rolled into town and controlled most of the game on the Wolverines’ home turf.

That was the first data point to Michigan fans realizing what many of us thought this year: This is not even close to the same Michigan team, no matter how much they try and keep it the same.

Sherrone Moore could end up doing well, he knows the formula for winning at Michigan and was a good offensive coordinator last year in the national title run. This was always going to be a reset season in Ann Arbor with the coaches and players lost to the NFL. Michigan fans assured me this offseason how little I understood about the game of football and what it means to be a Michigan Football program.

Here we are in Week 10 and the Wolverines might be a national title team in 1924, but not in 2024 when teams have figured out the forward pass. Davis Warren began the year as the starter and will be again on Saturday against a really good Oregon defense. Michigan’s passing offense has eclipsed 200 yards just twice this year–both in losses, amazingly–and has yet to hit 220 yards in a single game no matter who’s been at quarterback.

That’s not a good formula to try and score points on Tosh Lupoi’s defense for Oregon, who have only given up a 200-yard passing effort once this season–to Ohio State’s Will Howard. I don’t think it’s a hot take to say that the Buckeyes’ pass catchers are vastly superior to what Michigan will bring against Oregon this week.

The Ducks are riding high since that Ohio State win, looking goal-oriented in their last 2 games as they’ve avoided the emotional letdown. 73-9 over its last two contests against Purdue and #24 (previously #20) Illinois have demonstrated how good this Oregon team is capable of being. The Michigan defense will dictate how close Saturday’s road game for Dan Lanning’s team proves to be.

Oregon has scored at least 30 points in every game this season except for, you guessed it, IDAHO!! 

This Ducks team is very different from the team that took the field in Week 1. Oregon’s offense has started strong in every game since then, including a 35-3 beatdown in the first half of the Illini last week. Michigan’s defense is tougher than that, I don’t expect Oregon to have that easy of a time moving the football. 

Still, in my view Michigan’s defense is going to determine Oregon’s margin of victory. The Ducks’ defense has been really good this season and I can’t see how Michigan suddenly figures out how to sustain multiple touchdown drives–if any. Oregon’s big question on offense is much more nitpicky: Can they run it at 5 yards per carry or more against an NFL-laden defensive line for the Wolverines? If they do, Saturday will get ugly.

Michigan has to play a perfect game to win. They haven’t played their best game of the 2024 season yet, but I wonder if Oregon has either. What does a score look like if the Ducks avoid the 3rd quarter lulls that have followed dominant first half performances on offense?

It’s hard to come up with major questions for Oregon’s defense against a Michigan offense that averages just 300 yards per game. If Oregon takes away the rushing attack, or even just makes it mediocre, Michigan doesn’t have the tools this year to move the football up and down the field more than a couple times.

PREDICTION:

Oregon 31, Michigan 6

Spencer McLaughlin is an Oregon Ducks football contributor to 750 The Game. He also hosts the “Locked On Oregon Ducks” and “Locked On College Football” podcasts and has work featured throughout the season here.