Super Bowl LV Preview: TB Bucs v. KC Chiefs Odds, What to Watch For, Predictions

By Matthew Zimmer

The big day is finally here. Bucs & Chiefs. Brady & Mahomes. Let’s just dive in.

Odds

There are tons of things you can get odds on for the Super Bowl. Obviously, the most fun Super Bowl bets are the random (and mostly silly) prop bets. However, for the serious folks, here are the common odds to bet on courtesy of the Oregon Lottery Scoreboard.

• Spread: Chiefs (-3)
• Game Over/Under: 56 points
• Team Total Points Over/Under:
  • Chiefs Over 29.5 (-110) | Chiefs Under 29.5 (-115)
  • Buccaneers Over 26.5 (-120) | Buccaneers Under 26.5 (-105)
• Team Total Points (by half):
  • 1st Half:
    • Chiefs Over 14.5 (+110) | Chiefs Under 14.5 (-145)
    • Buccaneers Over 13.5 (-120) | Buccaneers Under 13.5 (-105)
  • 2nd Half:
    • Chiefs Over 14.5 (+110) | Chiefs Under 14.5 (-140)
    • Buccaneers Over 13.5 (-115) | Buccaneers Under 13.5 (-110)
• Total Touchdowns: Over 7 (+105) | Under 7 (-130)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -165 | Buccaneers +140
• First to Score (Game): Chiefs -125 | Buccaneers +100
  • First to Score (1st half): Chiefs -125 | Buccaneers +100
  • First to Score (2nd half): Chiefs -130 | Buccaneers +100
• Last to Score (Game): Chiefs -110 | Buccaneers -115
  • Last to Score (1st half): Chiefs -125 | Buccaneers +100
  • Last to Score (2nd half): Chiefs -110 | Buccaneers -115
•  Will any player score three or more TDs?
  • Yes (+550).

My favorite prop bet:

• Color of “Liquid” poured on Winning Coach
  • Orange (+125)
  • No Liquid Poured on Winning Coach (+275)
  • Red/Pink (+350)
  • Clear/Water (+500)
  • Yellow (+550)
  • Green (+550)
  • Purple (+750)
  • Blue (+800)

These last one’s are the far-off odds that if I had some money to waste I would bet on. I also genuinely think some of these could happen.

• Any Offensive or Defensive Lineman to Score a Touchdown?
  • Yes (+1000)
• Kickoff Return for a TD?
  • Yes (+1000)
• Successful Recovery of an Onside Kick Attempt?
  • Yes (+2000)
• Overtime (only one SB has gone to OT; SB LI – Patriots v. Falcons)
  • Yes (+975) | No (-4200)
• Will any QB throw for 500 Yards or More?
  • Yes (+1400) | No (-10000)

There are a ton of possible odds to bet on, so I’ll leave you with those above.

What To Watch For

Everyone and their mother is going to give you keys to the game, matchups to watch and players that could be an X-Factor.

I’m going to set mine up this way. Key matchups for when each team possesses of the ball. Also, I’ll give extra guys (X-Factors) for each team depending on who has the ball.

When Kansas City has the Ball:

• Chiefs Offensive Line vs. Bucs D-Line
  • Chiefs lost their left tackle, Eric Fisher, in the AFC Championship Game. However, Andy Reid practices/prepares for injuries like this specifically to the O-Line. They mix and match their OL during practice throughout the season.
  • The Bucs D-Line is fierce. Shaquil Barrett led the league in sacks with 19.5 two years ago; Vita Vea is a tank; Oregon native Ndamukong Suh is hungry for a big game. The KC “backups” could be in for a long day.
  • This battle could decide Super Bowl LV’s champion.
• Tyreek Hill & Travis Kelce vs. Bucs DBs/LBs
  • Hill torched the Bucs when the teams played in Week 12. The Bucs will either decide to cover Hill or Kelce with safety help over the top.
  • If Hill or Kelce are matched up one-on-one with anyone, watch out… However, if Hill and Kelce are double-teamed, look for the “other guys” — Sammy Watkins (if he plays), Mecole Hardman, etc. — to be more impactful in their individual matchups.
  • You can’t stop Hill and Kelce, you can only hope to slow them down. If the Bucs keep these two under 10 combined catches, they’ve got a legitimate shot to win.
• Patrick Mahomes vs. The Blitz
  • The Bucs only blitz one-third (33%) of the time. So, don’t expect a lot of blitzes.
  • Mahomes is also better against the blitz (five-plus pass rushers) than he is against just four-man pressure.
  • If the Bucs Blitz, they must force Mahomes to make mistakes — take sacks, fumble, throw picks. If Mahomes evades the blitz, he could hurt Tampa with his legs and his arm.

KC Offensive X-Factors: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. WR Mecole Hardman. (Former OSU Beaver) OT Mike Remmers.

TB Defensive X-Factors: LB Lavonte David. DB Carlton Davis. (If they play) Safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead.

When Tampa Bay has the Ball:

• Tom Brady vs. Pressure
  • Ask any team who has beaten Brady in the last 20+ years. They got pressure on him, hit him, sacked him, forced turnovers thanks to a pass rush.
  • Brady, like most QBs, is not good against pressure. However, he’s so bad that at one point this season I remember hearing that he was as bad as Sam Darnold (according to QBR) when pressured. Yikes.
  • He needs to get the ball on his terms, not because a defender is barreling towards him.
• Mike Evans vs. Chiefs DBs
  • Mike Evans is 6’5″ … the tallest DB on the Chiefs is safety Daniel Sorenson at 6’2″. The tallest CB is Charvarius Ward at 6’1″… if Evans can stay on the field, he can just out-height the Chiefs DBs whenever Brady wants to go to him.
  • If Mike Evans has a big day, this game will at least be close if not result in a Bucs win.

TB Offensive X-Factors: RB Leonard Fournette. RB Ronald Jones II. WR Scottie Miller.

KC Defensive X-Factors: DB Tryann Mathieu. DT Chris Jones. CB Bashaud Breeland. CB Charvarius Ward.

Predictions

Super Bowl LV features the two NFL quarterbacks I most often say “you should never bet against this guy.” So, now I have to bet against one of them … perfect.

Here are my picks:

Chiefs win & Cover the spread (-3): Yes.

• Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 27

An Offensive Lineman will score a touchdown (+1000): Yes.

• You know Andy Reid and Bruce Arians are the right coaches to pull something like this out in a Super Bowl. So, I’m looking for it.

Color of Liquid Poured on the winning coach: None (+275) or Blue (+800)

• Last year was Orange; also Orange has happened five times since SB XLIV (Saints v. Colts). I think this year will be an obscure color, OR no dump at all.
• If I’m right about the Chiefs winning, no Gatorade bath for Andy Reid.
• If I’m wrong, and the Bucs win, it will be Blue. That’s the farthest odds, and the last time we had Blue was Bill Belichick two years ago. Also, Blue is the best Gatorade, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Super Bowl MVP Odds: I didn’t list these above, but here’s the “Top 10”.

1. KC QB Patrick Mahomes (-110)

2. TB QB Tom Brady (+200)

T-3. KC TE Travis Kelce (+1400) / KC WR Tyreek Hill (+1400)

5. TB WR Mike Evans (+2800)

T-6. TB WR Chris Godwin (+3300) / TB RB Leonard Fournette (+3300)

T-8. KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+5000) / KC RB Darrel Williams (+5000) / KC WR Mecole Hardman (+5000) / KC WR Sammy Watkins (+5000)

Of the “favorites” (top 2), I’m going to pick Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

From the rest of the “Top 10,” I’m picking Chiefs TE Travis Kelce. I think the Bucs will focus on Hill, giving Kelce a chance to shine.

Outside the “Top 10,” I’m picking TB LB Lavonte David. If the Bucs win, I expect David to be a major reason.

I know I barely mentioned him during the “What to Watch for” section, but it’s because he does so much you’re going to see him no matter what. I don’t feel the need to warn you about watching him.

Again, these odds were courtesy of the Oregon Lottery Scoreboard.

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