“Oregon vs. Oregon” Means No Fun For Maryland On Saturday

By SPENCER McLAUGHLIN
Contributor, 750 The Game

Oregon is #1 in the first ever 12-team Playoff rankings with Maryland up next this week. The Ducks will be without WR Tez Johnson, their leading pass catcher, and potentially OL Marcus Harper. Harper is more likely to be able to play but the Ducks shouldn’t need either one to pick up a big victory on Saturday.

Oregon is favored by 24.5 points against the Terrapins, who have been a good offensive team this season. They throw for over 300 yards per game and average about 28 points per contest this year. The problem comes on the defensive side of the ball where every Big 10 opponent they’ve faced has scored at least 27 points this year. The Terrapins are 1-4 against B1G foes with their lone victory being a come-from-behind effort in the fourth quarter against USC for a 29-28 home win.

Tez Johnson is a great player and Oregon needs to get him back to be at their best. But the story in this game is going to be about Dillon Gabriel, who is the John Williams to Will Stein’s London Symphony Orchestra. Maryland surrenders 275 yards per game through the air and Dillon Gabriel has been in the zone.

I don’t think Gabriel can push through a crowded field and win the Heisman Trophy, but that won’t be for a lack of trying with his stellar play over the last few weeks. His next test is to keep this offense moving up and down the field without his go-to wideout in the slot. I expect Evan Stewart will see a bigger role in the box score, he’s been under 30 yards receiving in 6 of Oregon’s 9 games to this point. He’s a mega talent who will play in the NFL next season and has flashed utter brilliance on the perimeter this year.

It’s hard to see Maryland’s average defense holding Oregon under 30 points when Michigan, loaded with maybe the best D-line in the country, allowed the Ducks to score 38 points on their home field. What I’m most interested to see is this Oregon defense.

They gave up 17 points to Michigan last week, which is overall a good day. You keep your opponent under 20 points and everyone outside of the Iowa Hawkeyes will have a great chance to win a lot of games (they do anyway). Though the muffed punt that led to a touchdown didn’t help, I thought the defense struggled at times more than I expected it to. I predicted them to allow 6 points to the Wolverines and 0 touchdowns, instead Davis Warren showed signs of life against a passing defense that has been elite this season.

First world problems, as the Ducks still held the opposing QB under 200 yards passing for the 8th time in 9 games (Ohio St the lone exception). Does that continue this week? Maryland WR Tai Felton has put up 5 100-yard efforts this season, including last week in the loss to Minnesota. I wonder if Oregon CB Jabbar Muhammad follows him around all day.

The biggest concern for Maryland here is the offensive line. They’ve allowed 14 sacks this season against an Oregon front 4 that now has Jordan Burch back in the rotation with a game under his belt. Derrick Harmon is probably Oregon’s best defensive lineman (and maybe player) but there are lots of disruptors up front. Maryland does not have a single offensive lineman with a PFF grade at 70 or higher this year.

That’s not good for the Terrapins. 

I also suspect this defense sharpens things up after allowing a couple of 3rd and long sequences against Michigan that it shouldn’t have. Maryland is a better passing team, but they’re coming into Autzen Stadium against a deep and hungry Oregon team.

PREDICTION: 

Oregon 38, Maryland 7

Spencer McLaughlin is an Oregon Ducks football contributor to 750 The Game. He also hosts the “Locked On Oregon Ducks” and “Locked On College Football” podcasts and has work featured throughout the season here.