Ducks At Wisconsin Preview & Prediction – Will Oregon Get Back To Being Oregon?

By SPENCER McLAUGHLIN
Contributor, 750 The Game

Dan Lanning would probably tell you their opponent this week is the same as every week: Oregon.

The Ducks tried to lose to that opponent last week against Maryland and will look to bounce back this week against Wisconsin. They committed 12 penalties that resulted in 6 first downs for the Terrapins and probably gave them 6-10 points they wouldn’t have otherwise had. Make those same mistakes against Wisconsin and Saturday night will be uncomfortable for many in the Eugene area.

The Badgers, under 2nd-year head coach Luke Fickell, are not a great team. But they’re certainly far from a bad one. They went on the sort of 3-game rampage against lower-tiered B1G competition that Oregon went on against a similar caliber of opponent. 52-6, 42-7, and 23-3 against Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern probably had Badger fans thinking the 42-10 beatdown Alabama gave them in week 2 was a distant memory.

It wasn’t.

The last two games have gotten away from Wisconsin, losing 28-13 at home to Penn State and 42-10 on the road against Iowa. The Hawkeyes threw for 93 yards two weeks ago and managed to clip the 40-point mark against the Badgers on the back of 329 yards rushing. A similar effort from a Wisconsin defense that’s allowing 165 rushing yards per game against Oregon would send Badger fans home early.

Think Dan Lanning would call another timeout for his team to watch the fans file out of the stadium?

The Ducks’ rushing attack has been solid this year, but not as explosive as past seasons. In 2022, Oregon hit the 200-yard rushing mark 6 times including thrice eclipsing 300 yards on the ground. They were over 200 6 times in 2023 as well, hitting 300 yards once against Portland State. 

This year? The Ducks have hit 200+ yards on the ground just 3 times in their first 10 games of the season. It hasn’t been bad, but it hasn’t been as explosive as the first two under Dan Lanning.

Wisconsin’s pass defense is excellent. They are top 10 in the country nationally in passing yards allowed per game, though context is required there. The best passing offense they faced was USC, who is also the only team to hit the 300-yard mark through the air. Still, that’s undoubtedly the strength of this Wisconsin defense.

The Badgers have lost a pair of top-5 games at home this year by an average of 23.5 points per game, though they were more competitive against Penn State a few weeks ago than the 28-13 score indicates. QB Brayden Locke has to protect the ball against an Oregon defense that harassed Maryland QB Billy Edwards Jr. to 3 turnovers (2 INTs and 1 scoop-and-score fumble). 

After a sloppy performance at home last week, I’m curious to see how Oregon comes out on the road in front of what should be a great crowd in Madison. The Ducks have had some great first half performances on the road this year in B1G play. 28 points against Michigan and UCLA, plus 21 in the first 2 quarters at Purdue en route to a 35-0 shutout win.

I’m not entirely sure what will give, but I have a sense that Dan Lanning has his team ready to roll this weekend on both sides of the ball. Either Oregon’s ground game finally pops off or the Wisconsin pass defense can’t keep up with Oregon’s wideouts, even without Tez Johnson.

PREDICTION: Oregon 34, Wisconsin 17

Spencer McLaughlin is an Oregon Ducks football contributor to 750 The Game. He also hosts the “Locked On Oregon Ducks” and “Locked On College Football” podcasts and has work featured throughout the season here.