Bet The Game: Important Betting Notes for Championship Sunday
What to know heading into Championship Sunday:
- The last time the AFC Championship didn’t include Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger was in 2002 when the Raiders beat the Titans
- There have been NINE conference championship games since 2002 that have had a spread larger than 6 points — favorites have not done well ATS against that larger number
- Favorites are 7-2 straight up, but just 3-6 ATS
- Since 2002, teams generating more sacks for the year compared to their opponent going into the Championship round, are 22-12 (64.7%) ATS — both home favorites hold the sack advantage this Sunday
- Teams are 19-8 (70.4%) ATS when forcing more turnovers than their opponent did in their respective Divisional round game
- Titans forced THREE turnovers compared to the Chiefs ONE, while the 49ers forced TWO turnovers compared to the Packers ZERO
- SIX of the EIGHT teams that reached the Divisional round ranked top-10 in the league for yards gained on the ground per game — only the Titans (146.7) and 49ers (146.5) remain, ranking 2nd and 3rd respectively
- Since 2002, the OVER is 10-3-1 in Conference Championship games when the favorite has the rushing edge
- The 49ers fit the trend, averaging nearly 35 more yards on the ground than the Packers
- The OVER has also hit in seven of the last nine games where the 49ers have been the betting favorite
[6] Tennessee Titans @ [2] Kansas City Chiefs | 12:05 p.m. on CBS
Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5, o/u 52
Current Line: Chiefs -7.5, o/u 53
Trends & Important Nuggets:
- Home teams are 5-1 straight up in the last 6 AFC Championship games
- This is the fifth time that the Titans have been underdogs of 4 or more points this season — Titans won all of the previous four games outright, including at the Chiefs early in the regular season
- Tennessee has won the last four meetings against Kansas City head-to-head — the last three meetings have been decided by 3 points or less
- Notable: The 2018 AFC Wild Card game where Marcus Mariota caught his own TD pass and the Titans rallied back from being down 21-6, to win 22-21
- Derrick Henry is the first players in NFL history to record 180+ rushing yards in three consecutive games
- His 406 scrimmage yards in those games accounted for 69% of the team’s total 585 yards — on pace to pass Eric Dickerson who accounted for 64% of the Rams offense
- Kansas City’s defense under Steve Spagnuolo stepped up down the stretch of the regular season
- During their final five regular season games, the defense allowed an average of 10.2 ppg and 292.2 ypg
- Chief’s are 9-0 this season when their defense holds an opponent to 110 rushing yards or fewer, and just 4-4 when allowing 110 yards or greater — Henry ran for 188 yards in their last meeting
- Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is still on a quest for his FIRST Super Bowl victory — he’s the winningest coach to never win a Super Bowl
- Chiefs DT Chris Jones was held out of last game against Houston due to a calf strain he sustained during that week of practice — Jones returned to practice today (Friday the 17th), but Andy Reid mentioned he is still not yet ready
- Jones is a HUGE piece of the Chiefs interior defense, and would be an enormous key to helping stop Derrick Henry on Sunday is he is able to suit up
.@PatrickMahomes‘ three starts in the #NFLPlayoffs?
🔥 894 passing yards
🔥 9 touchdowns
🔥 No turnovers
🔥 113.2 passer rating📺: #TENvsKC – SUNDAY at 3:05pm ET on CBS
📱: NFL App // Yahoo Sports App pic.twitter.com/c1tkId81Pw— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2020
[2] Green Bay Packers @ [1] San Francisco 49ers | 3:40 p.m. on FOX
Opening Line: 49ers -7, o/u 45
Current Line: 49ers -7.5, o/u 46.5
Trends & Important Nuggets:
- Home teams are 5-1 straight up in the last 6 NFC Championship games
- San Francisco has been to more NFC Championships than any other team (15) — they hold a 6-9 record all time
- 49ers defeated the Packers in their regular season meeting by a score of 37-8 — 49ers defense records FIVE sacks and TWELVE tackles for loss (and they weren’t at full strength)
- Green Bay had 198 yards of offense, and Rodgers was held to just 104 yards passing — this was the fewest passing yards by a QB with 20+ completions in NFL history
- In the Divisional round, the 49ers held the Vikings to under 100 yards of offense up until the fourth quarter — the return of Dee Ford, Jaquiski Tartt, and Kwon Alexander was just as big emotionally as it was personnel-wise
- This season, San Francisco’s defense recorded a sack in 17.3% of opponent drop-backs with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford on the field! — just 5.7% with either or both of them off the field (league average is 6.5%)
- Green Bay has been back to the NFC Championship twice since their Super Bowl XLV win, but lost both
- The loss to Seattle after holding a 19-7 lead in the final minutes is particularly heartbreaking
- Aaron Rodgers was effective against the Seahawks in the Divisional round, but it was a banged up Seahawks secondary and DeVante Adams did nearly all of the damage
- Adams saw 11 targets for 8 receptions, 160 yards and 2 TD’s
- This is the fourth time that Aaron Rodgers has been a underdog of 7 or more points — he’s 0-3 straight up, but 3-0 ATS
- Jimmy Garroppolo has gotten the job done, but has also been turnover prone all season
- Last four games: 3 TD’s, 3 INT’s, 216 ypg, 65.5% completion, sacked 11 times
- He’s thrown 13 INT’s this season — INT rate of 2.7 which is 7th highest in the league
- He’s also fumbled 10 times, which is 8th most among ALL players
The @49ers offense was 🔥 the last time these two met.
Will this weekend’s rematch look different? 👀
📺: #GBvsSF — SUNDAY 6:40pm ET on FOX
📱: NFL App // Yahoo Sports App pic.twitter.com/yQ1ivx8BOv— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2020
Listen to the latest episode of the Bet The Game podcast to hear Judah and Zack breakdown both games and make their picks for Championship Sunday!